SINGAPORE: A350 and 787 set to face off

The rival latest-generation widebodies from Airbus and Boeing will go head to head at an air show for the first time at the Singapore air show, which kicks off on 11 February.
Southeast Asia is a key battleground for the contest between the A350 and the 787, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for one-third of all sales of the two twinjets.

It will be the first full appearance at an air show by the A350-900. The aircraft’s last public appearance was a fly-past towards the end of the 2013 Paris air show, a week after making its maiden flight.
While the A350 – bearing registration MSN 003 – will take part in the flying display, it is not certain whether it will be joined by the 787. Boeing will only confirm that the Qatar Airways-liveried Dreamliner will be on the static display, although the US manufacturer did memorably return to air show flying at Farnborough  2012 after a 30-year hiatus with a Qatar 787.

All eyes will be on whether the airframers can secure further deals for their new types. Singapore Airlines has already split its loyalties. The city-state’s flag carrier has firm orders for 70 A350-900s, while it is also launch customer for the 787-10, with 30 on order.

Indonesia’s Garuda and Philippine Airlines are looking to the A350 or 787 as a possible replacement for A330s, while Malaysia Airlines is evaluating the A350 and 787 to replace 777-200ERs, although it may plump for the high-gross-weight version of the A330, according to Flightglobal’s Ascend advisory service.
While the Singapore show – held at the Changi Exhibition Centre near the island’s international airport – is unlikely to see the sort of eye-watering mega orders witnessed at Dubai in November, the continued buoyancy of the Southeast Asian market is likely to see plenty of activity for the main airframers.

Singapore Airlines may choose the show to announce an order for the Boeing 777X, joining the three big Gulf airlines which ordered the long-range twinjet at Dubai, as well as its Asian rival Cathay Pacific. Even if Singapore Airlines fails to place a commitment, other heavy hitters in the region may be keen to lock-in delivery slots.

We might see confirmation of an order for 20 A380s from new kid on the leasing block Doric – Airbus expects the contract to be signed in the first quarter. And Indonesia’s Lion Air could use the show to announce its engine choice for the hundreds of A320s it has on order.

On the defence side, Singapore has requested a major upgrade for its 60 F-16s. If the government decides to compete it, it could prompt a battle between original equipment manufacturer Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems to be lead contractor – and between Northrop Grumman and Raytheon to supply the latest-generation radar.

The island state is also a security co-operation participant in the F-35 programme, and its defence minister recently witnessed a flight demonstration of the short take-off and vertical landing B variant in the USA. Meanwhile, Singapore’s airlift requirements should also be interesting, with reports that the government is interested in the Airbus A330 MRTT and Boeing’s C-17.

Historic head-to-heads
There have been some memorable face-offs between competitor aircraft at air shows. Here are just some of them:
Paris 1969: A new era dawns as Europe’s rising supersonic star Concorde squares up with the USA’s just-flown jumbo, the Boeing 747
Paris 1971: A return for Concorde, this time a chance to compare it with its Russian counterpart, the Tupolev Tu-144
Paris 1973: Airbus emerges on the scene with the A300B. Not to be outdone, Lockheed’s L1011 TriStar joins it for one day
Farnborough 1986: Regional rivalry between the BAe 146 and the Fokker 100
Paris 1995: Widebody war as Airbus showed its A330 and A340, and Boeing its 777-200
Farnborough 2004: Boeing and Northrop Grumman unveil full-scale mock-ups of their competing Joint Unmanned Combat Air System (J-UCAS) demonstrators
Paris 2011: Battle of the big boys, with the Airbus A380 in the flying display and the Boeing 747-8 in the static.

Flight Global 

Why I think the A350XWB is a better fit compared to the B787 (The DREAMLINER)

Photo Credit: Boeing Images

As an aviation enthusiast, I want all companies to succeed; however, Boeing’s commercial program has been a huge disappointment lately. The B787 is a great aircraft, the first of its kind in commercial production, it set the precedence for the A350 to evolve, as well as future aviation, but unfortunately, the B787 program fell short and hasn't been very successful.

Like the A380 that flopped and did not break-even, the 787 faces the same fate. The program had a bright future because of its futuristic –ish design and components: 50% composite – less weight and more cost savings – and despite its positive outlook, it failed in delivery. I recalled its successful launch, it was highly publicized, but no sooner than the first sets of aircrafts entered into service, the problems began. It is no news about numerous problems that plagued the program, what had Boeing done wrong, AGAIN?

Airbus having realized that bigger is ALWAYS better, they went back to the drawing board and emerged well prepared with the A350XWB. I strongly believe that the Airbus Company built a better and more efficient design based on Boeing’s failure of the 787 program. Although it’s too early to praise the A350XWB which is scheduled for commercial service the first quarter of 2014, it is highly speculative and anticipated to perform well than its rival.

To me, I’m more concerned about which is better, on the surface, I will peak into these two aircraft and what they have to offer


The 787-800 seats 210 to 250 passengers (average of 230 passengers), and has a range of 7,650 to 8,200 nautical miles (14,200 to 15,200 kilometers) an average of 7,925 miles (14,700 kilometers) and a price tag of  $211 million (Source)

The A350-800 designed to carry 276 passengers in a twin aisle configuration (46 passengers more on average) flying up to 8,250 nautical miles (15,300 kilometers). The price tag is $261 million ($50 million) more than its competitor. 

To me, despite the higher expense, the Airbus is a more cost-effective aircraft and here is why
For the purpose of this exercise, I am assuming a 100% LF and also maximum range, given this scenario,




Boeing’s Available Seat Mile (ASM) is the following
At Min, ASM = 210 passengers x 7,650 nautical miles = 1,606,500
At Max, ASM = 250 passengers x 8,200 nautical miles = 2,050,000
At Avg, ASM = 230 passengers x 7,925 nautical miles = 1,822,750

For the purpose of calculation, I reversed the table to favor Boeing’s B787 because in realism, the more passengers on board (compensating for gross weight), the less fuel carried onboard resulting to less mileage flown.

Airbus ASM = 276 passengers x 8,250 nautical miles = 2,277,000

ASM or Available Seat Mile is an airline measure of carrying capacity of an airplane on a given trip. This measure is utilized by airlines to determine Revenue and Cost because not all seats (ticket) on the aircraft cost the same, therefore, this measure is very important to airlines. To calculate what ASM is, you simply multiply the aircraft's maximum available seats by the destination range or the number of miles flown. 

ASM = Available Seats x Distance flown,

•  where available seats is total number of seats on the plane - reserved non-revenue seats. Non-revenue could be employees embarking on company business, security escorts like Federal Marshals, etc. 

For instance, A NY to Washington DC flight is operated with a B737-800 and has a seating capacity of 180 passengers flying a distance of 220 nautical miles. However, because it's headed into Washington, DC there are two Marshals on the plane with a mechanic. The ASM is 

ASM =[180 - 3]  x 220  = 38,940 available seat miles. 

I thought I explain this detail before continuing any further. Also, for the purpose of a fair comparison, I assumed the maximum seating capacity as the available seat and maximum range as the number of miles flown. 

Photo Credit: Airbus Images

The Airbus ASM is 11% higher than Boeing’s Maximum scenario; however, this result isn't definitive because it just tells us that Airbus has 11% more operating capacity than Boeing. To the average person, this technical jargon doesn't translate any meaningful information; therefore using Boeing’s Max scenario, it will cost an airline about 32.80 miles/seat (8,200 / 250) in comparison to Airbus which is 29.89 miles/seat (8,250 / 276). Yet, using the industry standard of seat/mile, Boeing s/m is 0.0304 and Airbus is 0.0334.

As you can see, Airbus has more seats/mile which translates into more revenue/mile (if filled). That’s a 9.7% advantage over Boeing. Imagine a 9% ticket reduction in the base fare, though not significant, but that is a good savings. This is how the numbers add up.

Although Airbus does come out on top regardless, it wouldn't make more sense if we don’t evaluate the cost of aircraft into these calculations. The B787 cost $211 million and the A350 cost $261 million, both -800 models, taking a closer look at the Purchase Price – ASM Factor, assuming everything is equal (subsidies, discounts, and what not),  what does it cost to operate a single seat per the cost of the aircraft?

The Initial Cost Price for the 787 is $211 million and the Max ASM is 2,050,000 and this equals to $102.93/ASM compared to Airbus which is $114.62. Using the Max scenario and giving a fair comparison to Airbus, adjusting for the average scenario, the result is $115.17, 55 cents more expensive.

What this means is for instance, assuming the Cost-Available Seat Mile is 8 cents, the aircraft has to fly for extra 7 miles to break-even on the cost and 7 miles when multiplied by the per mile rate, can be several hundred if not thousands of $$$.

In a more realistic scenario, I will give it hands down to the A350XWB, the aircraft though expensive for its class type, happens to be more cost efficient than the 787. Please keep in mind, other factors such as Direct Operating Costs, as well as others wasn't considered. This analysis just expresses the numbers on its face.